The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology

The six epochs

A theory of technology evolution : the law of accelerating returns

Achieving the computational capacity of the human brain

Achieving the software of human intelligence : how to reverse engineer the human brain

GNR : three overlapping revolutions

The impact...

Ich bin ein singularitarian

The deeply intertwined promise and peril of GNR

Response to critics

Epilogue.

Prologue. The power of ideas -- 1. The six epochs -- The intuitive linear view versus the historical exponential view -- The six epochs -- Epoch one : physics and chemistry -- Epoch two : biology and DNA -- Epoch three : brains -- Epoch four : technology -- Epoch five : the merger of human technology with human intelligence -- Epoch six : the universe wakes up -- The singularity is near -- 2. A theory of technology evolution : the law of accelerating returns -- The nature of order -- The life cycle of a paradigm -- Fractal designs -- Farsighted evolution -- The S-curve of a technology as expressed in its life cycle -- The life cycle of a technology -- From goat skins to downloads -- Moore's law and beyond -- Moore's law : self-fulfilling prophecy? -- The fifth paradigm -- Fractal dimensions and the brain -- DNA sequencing, memory, communications, the Internet, and miniaturization -- Information, order, and evolution : the insights from Wolfram and Fredkin's cellular automata -- Can we evolve artificial intelligence from simple rules? -- The singularity as economic imperative -- Get eighty trillion dollars, limited time only -- Deflation ... a bad thing? -- 3. Achieving the computational capacity of the human brain -- The sixth paradigm of computing technology : three dimensional -- Molecular computing and emerging computational technologies -- The bridge to 3-D molecular computing -- Nanotubes are still the best bet -- Computing with molecules -- Self-assembly -- Emulating biology -- Computing with DNA -- Computing with spin -- Computing with light -- Quantum computing -- The computational capacity of the human brain -- Accelerating the availability of human-level personal computing -- Human memory capacity -- The limits of computation -- Reversible computing -- How smart is a rock? -- The limits of nanocomputing -- Setting a date for the singularity -- Memory and computational efficiency : a rock versus a human brain -- Going beyond the ultimate : pico- and femtotechnology and bending the speed of light -- Going back in time --

4. Achieving the software of human intelligence : how to reverse engineer the human brain -- Reverse engineering the brain : an overview of the task -- New brain-imaging and modeling tools -- The software of the brain -- Analytic versus neuromorphic modeling of the brain -- How complex is the brain? -- Modeling the brain -- Peeling the onion -- Is the human brain different from a computer? -- The brain's circuits are very slow -- But it's massively parallel -- The brain combines analog and digital phenomena -- The brain rewires itself -- Most of the details in the brain are random -- The brain uses emergent properties -- The brain is imperfect -- We contradict ourselves -- The brain uses evolution -- The patterns are important -- The brain is holographic -- The brain is deeply connected -- The brain does have an architecture of regions -- The design of a brain region is simpler than the design of a neuron -- Trying to understand our own thinking : the accelerating pace of research -- Peering into the brain -- New tools for scanning the brain -- Improving resolution -- Scanning using nanobots -- Building models of the brain -- Subneural models : synapses and spines -- Neuron models -- Electronic neurons -- Brain plasticity -- Modeling regions of the brain -- A neuromorphic model : the cerebellum -- Another example : Watts's model of the auditory regions -- The visual system -- Other works in progress : an artificial hippocampus and an artificial olivocerebellar region -- Understanding higher-level functions : imitation, prediction, and emotion -- Interfacing the brain and machines -- The accelerating pace of reverse engineering the brain -- The scalability of human intelligence -- Uploading the human brain --

5. GNR : three overlapping revolutions -- Genetics : the intersection of information and biology -- Life's computer -- Designer baby boomers -- Can we really live forever? -- RNAi (RNA interference) -- Cell therapies -- Gene chips -- Somatic gene therapy -- Reversing degenerative disease -- Combating heart disease -- Overcoming cancer -- Reversing aging -- DNA mutations -- Toxic cells -- Mitochondrial mutations -- Intracellular aggregates -- Extracellular aggregates -- Cell loss and atrophy -- Human cloning : the least interesting application of cloning technology -- Why is cloning important? -- Preserving endangered species and restoring extinct ones -- Therapeutic cloning -- Human somatic-cell engineering -- Solving world hunger -- Human cloning revisited -- Nanotechnology : the intersection of information and the physical world -- The biological assembler -- Upgrading the cell nucleus with a nanocomputer and nanobot -- Fat and sticky fingers -- The debate heats up -- Early adopters -- Powering the singularity -- Applications of nanotechnology to the environment -- Nanobots in the bloodstream -- Robotics : strong AI -- Runaway AI -- The AI winter -- AI's toolkit -- Expert systems -- Bayesian nets -- Markov models -- Neural nets -- Genetic algorithms (GAs) -- Recursive search -- Deep Fritz draws : are humans getting smarter, or are computers getting stupider? -- The specialized-hardware advantage -- Deep Blue versus Deep Fritz -- Significant software gains -- Are human chess players doomed? -- Combining methods -- A narrow AI sampler -- Military and intelligence -- Space exploration -- Medicine -- Science and math -- Business, finance, and manufacturing -- Manufacturing and robotics -- Speech and language -- Entertainment and sports -- Strong AI --

6. The impact ... -- A panoply of impacts -- ... on the human body -- A new way of eating -- Redesigning the digestive system -- Programmable blood -- Have a heart, or not -- So what's left? -- Redesigning the human brain -- We are becoming cyborgs -- Human body version 3.0 -- ... on the human brain -- The 2010 scenario -- The 2030 scenario -- Become someone else -- Experience beamers -- Expand your mind -- ... on human longevity -- The transformation to nonbiological experiences -- The longevity of information -- ... on warfare : the remote, robotic, robust, size-reduced, virtual-reality paradigm -- Smart dust -- Nanoweapons -- Smart weapons -- VR -- ... on learning -- ... on work -- Intellectual property -- Decentralization -- ... on play -- ... on the intelligent destiny of the cosmos : why we are probably alone in the universe -- The Drake equation -- The limits of computation revisited -- Bigger or smaller -- Expanding beyond the solar system -- The speed of light revisited -- Wormholes -- Changing the speed of light -- The Fermi paradox revisited -- The anthropic principle revisited -- The multiverse -- Evolving universes -- Intelligence as the destiny of the universe -- The ultimate utility function -- Hawking radiation -- Why intelligence is more powerful than physics -- A universe-scale computer -- The holographic universe -- 7. Ich bin ein singularitarian -- Still human? -- The vexing question of consciousness -- Who am I? : what am I? -- The singularity as transcendence --

8. The deeply intertwined promise and peril of GNR

Intertwined benefits ...

... and dangers

A panoply of existential risks

The precautionary principle

The smaller the interaction, the larger the explosive potential

Our simulation is turned off

Crashing the party

GNR : the proper focus of promise versus peril

The inevitability of a transformed future

Totalitarian relinquishment

Preparing the defenses

Strong AI

Returning to the past?

The idea of relinquishment

Broad relinquishment

Fine-grained relinquishment

Dealing with abuse

The threat from fundamentalism

Fundamentalist humanism

Development of defensive technologies and the impact of regulation

Protection from "unfriendly" strong AI

Decentralization

Distributed energy

Civil liberties in an age of asymmetric warfare

A program for GNR defense

9. Response to critics

A panoply of criticisms

The criticism from incredulity

The criticism from Malthus

Exponential trends don't last forever

A virtually unlimited limit

The criticism from software

Software stability

Software responsiveness

Software price-performance

Software development productivity

Software complexity

Accelerating algorithms

The ultimate source of intelligent algorithms

The criticism from analog processing

The criticism from the complexity of neural processing

Brain complexity

A computer's inherent dualism

Levels and loops

The criticism from microtubules and quantum computing

The criticism from the Church-Turing thesis

The criticism from failure rates

The criticism from "lock-in"

The criticism from ontology : can a computer be conscious?

Kurzweil's Chinese room

The criticism from the rich-poor divide

The criticism from the likelihood of government regulation

The unbearable slowness of social institutions

The criticism from theism

The criticism from holism

Epilogue. How singular?

Human centrality

Resources and contact information

Appendix : The law of accelerating returns revisited.